Brief 0 — Climate Risk Is the Most Underpriced Variable in Real Estate
Ep0-01 · S1 Insurance Repricing
Colorado homeowners premiums rose sharply and carriers retreated from the state.
Figure | +51.7% premiums; ~76% of carrier groups shrinking |
Data-as-of | Jan 2019 – Oct 2022 |
Source | Colorado Division of Insurance (DORA) report |
Source date | 2023 |
Source URL | https://doi.colorado.gov/homeowners-insurance-affordability-availability |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Dated regulatory source; 51.7% and 76% confirmed. |
Ep0-02 · S1 Insurance Repricing
Colorado homeowners insurance costs among fastest-rising nationally.
Figure | ~+58% (≈60% over 5 yrs) |
Data-as-of | 2018 – 2023 |
Source | Colorado State Univ. REDI; Rocky Mountain Insurance Assoc. |
Source date | 2023 |
Source URL | |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Corroborated by KUNC/Colorado Sun (~60% over 5 yrs). Verify CSU REDI link. |
Ep0-03 · S1 Insurance Repricing
Colorado opened a last-resort residential insurer, signaling voluntary-market failure.
Figure | FAIR Plan residential apps opened; ACV coverage |
Data-as-of | Apr 2025 |
Source | Colorado FAIR Plan Assoc.; Colorado Division of Insurance |
Source date | Apr 2025 |
Source URL | |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Status current as of access date; re-verify coverage terms. |
Ep0-04 · S5 Acute Climate Hazard
Large wildland-urban-interface exposure concentrated in Colorado Springs / Front Range.
Figure | >51,000 homes in wildfire hazard zones |
Data-as-of | 2024 mapping |
Source | Colorado State Forest Service wildfire risk mapping |
Source date | 2024 |
Source URL | https://csfs.colostate.edu/wildfire-mitigation/colorados-wildland-urban-interface/ |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Verify CSFS mapping link. |
Ep0-05 · S6 Chronic Climate Stress
Greeley experiencing chronic heat-day increase (not an acute event).
Figure | ~+142% days over 94 F |
Data-as-of | ~30-yr trend (1990s–2020s) |
Source | Climate Central / regional climate records (per Ep 0 fact-check) |
Source date | 2023-2024 |
Source URL | |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Confirm exact baseline window + Climate Central link. |
See Also:
McKinsey Global Institute. Global real estate market value exceeds $630 trillion, larger than global stock and bond markets combined.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2025 property damage data: inland events exceed coastal damage for first time in recorded history; >$100B in annual losses.
Heitman & Urban Land Institute. 2025 guidance: institutional investors incorporating climate costs adjust year-one operating expenses upward 8-14% relative to TTM financials.
National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC). 2025 Operating Cost Report: high-exposure climate zones show 31% insurance growth (36 months) vs. 12% in lower-exposure zones.
First Street Foundation. Property-level climate risk assessment data covering flood, wildfire, heat, and compound risk exposure.
Insurance Information Institute. Property insurance premium trends: 2019-2024 average increases 18-25% nationally; flood-exposed markets 40-80%.
Brief 1 — Why Climate Risk Is an Underwriting Variable
Ep1-01 · S1 Insurance Repricing
Structural P/C underwriting losses signal premium repricing across markets.
Figure | $15.2B U.S. underwriting losses |
Data-as-of | FY 2023 |
Source | AM Best 2023 Annual U.S. P/C Report |
Source date | 2023 |
Source URL | https://www.carriermanagement.com/news/2024/07/26/264765.htm |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Underwriting losses, not catastrophe losses. Verify AM Best link. |
Ep1-02 · S1 Insurance Repricing
Deal-level insurance repricing on an unchanged 80-unit Mid-Atlantic portfolio.
Figure | $180K → $450K (~16%/yr; ~$4.9M value erosion) |
Data-as-of | 2017 – 2023 |
Source | CRREI deal-level case study (first-party) |
Source date | 2024 |
Source URL | N/A — first-party modeled case |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Modeled/illustrative case (B2B methodology note); ~$4.9M at going-in cap. |
Ep1-03 · S2 Credit & Mortgage Markets
GSEs dominate the mortgage market; climate underwriting transmits to prices.
Figure | ~70% of U.S. mortgage market |
Data-as-of | 2024 |
Source | FHFA oversight reporting; Fannie Mae climate research |
Source date | 2024 |
Source URL | https://www.fhfa.gov/blog/insights/incorporating-climate-related-risks-into-governance |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Exit-cap impact (25–75 bps) is modeled. Verify FHFA link. |
Ep1-04 · S4 Valuation & Appraisal Gap
Millions of properties carry flood exposure outside FEMA designations.
Figure | >3.2M properties (later vintages: 4M+ outside SFHA / 6M unaccounted by FEMA) |
Data-as-of | 2020 – 2024 |
Source | First Street Foundation — First National Flood Risk Assessment |
Source date | 2020-2024 |
Source URL | |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Confirm 3.2M vintage; current First Street figures are 4M+/6M. |
Ep1-05 · S5 Acute Climate Hazard
FEMA flood-map backlog leaves high-risk properties with outdated designations.
Figure | Unmapped exposure quantified by First Street |
Data-as-of | 2023 |
Source | FEMA NFIP data; First Street Foundation |
Source date | 2023 |
Source URL | |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
See Also:
FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Risk Rating 2.0 implementation data; updated flood zone maps affecting 8-12% of US properties.
Marsh McLennan. 2025 Property Insurance Market Report: Gulf Coast multifamily showing 14% compound annual growth rate in premiums over 4 years for wind/flood exposure.
Insurance Information Institute. Flood-exposed markets: +40-80% premium increases; wildfire zones: +50%+ increases.
British Insurance Brokers Association. UK flood insurance: Properties in risk postcodes face 40-150% premium increases; insurers withdrawing from high-risk zones.
German Insurance Association (GDV). Post-2021 flood insurance repricing: premiums doubled or tripled in affected regions.
Moody's & S&P (Credit Rating Agencies). 2024-2025 guidance: property risk models now include climate exposure as primary factor; investment grade downgrades underway.
Brief 2 — Building a Climate-Adjusted Pro Forma — Houston Class B Multifamily
Ep2-01 · S1 Insurance Repricing
Houston multifamily insurance well above national norms; carriers selective.
Figure | >$1,200/unit/yr; Texas >20% YoY multiple years |
Data-as-of | 2026 |
Source | NAA Premium Pulse |
Source date | 2026 |
Source URL | https://naahq.org/news/premium-pulse-national-multifamily-insurance-cost-acceleration |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Asset: Houston 184-unit Class B, Harris County. Verify NAA link. |
Ep2-02 · S2 Credit & Mortgage Markets
Lender covenant tightening + utility cost shock add DSCR pressure.
Figure | CenterPoint +38% utility rate increase |
Data-as-of | 2024-2025 |
Source | CenterPoint Energy rate filings (per brief) |
Source date | 2025 |
Source URL | [https://tccfui.org/centerpoint-to-increase-electric-rates-to-pay-for-system-restoration/ |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Confirm filing/approval date + PUCT docket link. |
Ep2-03 · S5 Acute Climate Hazard
Repeated federal disaster declarations; storm recurrence intervals shortened.
Figure | 7 federal disaster declarations since 2017; 100-yr storm now ~25-yr |
Data-as-of | 2017 – present; Atlas 14 revision |
Source | FEMA disaster declarations; NOAA Atlas 14 |
Source date | 2018 (Atlas 14) / 2026 access |
Source URL | https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-updates-texas-rainfall-frequency-values |
Accessed | Jun 2026 |
Caveat | Atlas 14 Texas published 2018; declarations cumulative. Verify links. |
See Also:
Heitman & Urban Land Institute. 2025 Guidance: institutional investors adjusting year-one operating expenses upward 8-14% relative to TTM financials based on climate exposure.
National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC). 2025 Operating Cost Report: high-exposure zones 31% insurance growth vs. 12% lower-exposure zones (36-month trailing).
Marsh McLennan. 2025 Property Insurance Market Report: Gulf Coast multifamily segment shows 14% compound annual growth rate in premiums over 4 years.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Atlas 14 rainfall frequency update: Harris County (Houston) one-percent storm depth increased approximately 20%.
NOAA. Grid reliability degradation post-Winter Storm Uri (2021); Houston area reliability materially declined.
FEMA. 100-year floodplain map data; updated rainfall estimates showing expanded flood zones.
Insurance carrier non-renewal trends in Gulf Coast multifamily market; regional specialty writers exiting high-risk zip codes.
Building science: Roof (composite shingle, 20-year design life), HVAC condenser (12-15 year life), drainage infrastructure end-of-life projections under climate stress loads.